Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
